Fay on the doorstep

 

We’ll know about TS Fay’s probabilities by Tuesday.  We’re 100% ready for this storm….well, as ready as anybody can be.  Everything is battened down, all supplies are checked, and the generator works well.  I just hope they don’t issue an evacuation order on our key, as those really suck.  They expect Fay to become a hurricane later today.  I can handle a Category 1 with no sweat, as long as landfall is at low tide.  High tide + storm surge wouldn’t be a good thing. 

 

The stores are pretty well sold out of water, batteries, candles, and staples.

No trading for me today today, as I have to get a couple of prescriptions refilled.  I also need to get my rear tire replaced on my Vespa as it blew out yesterday.

 

Hopefully, we’ll be back in Cocoa Beach on Wednesday.

 

Jeff

It’s that time of the year again

 

I hate these little scares.  We might end up having to go home for a couple of days to batten down the hatches, as living at the beach is ground zero for storms. 

Whatever, there should be pretty good waves out of this.  Fay should turn into a category 1-2 hurricane in a day or so.  We’re OK with a category 1 or 2 at low tide, but anything more and it’s “head for the hills.”

 

Jeff

update 8/14

We’ve spent the past couple of days bemoaning the lack of decent waves.  I didn’t do any trading yesterday, and don’t think I will do any trading today either.  Since the ocean has turned completely flat, I’ve decided to check out the local real estate market.  We’re going to drive around and check things out.  My cousin, who lives on Jupiter Island, is coming up tomorrow to say hi. He keeps trying to get me to move down there. I wouldn’t mind living in Jupiter, but that would be a stretch.  Jupiter is hands down, the most expensive place to live in Florida.  My tastes also don’t go that way, as I like more shabby surroundings. Plus, I have several relatives who live there, and I don’t need any family drama. 

 

I was so pissed off yesterday.  We were swimming at the pool and left my digital camera on the lounger.  Spending about an hour in the pool, I returned to find my camera gone.  I reported it to the management, but suspect that I won’t get it back. My camera is long gone.

 

From now, I’m only going to buy those cheap digital cameras from http://geeks.com.  Geeks is a pretty good site for getting electronics very cheaply.  If you want to find decent stuff at low prices, check out Geeks. 

We’ve been eating real well, going to daKine Diego’s everyday for the killer burritos.  I’ve been going to get my daily dose of cholesterol every morning over at Waffle house, and we’ve been eating light suppers.  So far, we haven’t used the kitchen of our place, and only keep soft drinks in the refrigerator.  We’ve been hitting Starbucks every day, and that’s a habit I could do without.

 

I have no idea on the direction of the markets right now.  My mental filters have all gone to the recesses of my mind, and trading has taken a back burner to our little trip.  This disconnect has done me a little good, and I get to spend time with John.  In this cyber age, John manages to be in touch with all his friends.  With all the text messages, etc., he keeps in touch.  I like to send John e-mails occasionally and wonder why he never looks at them.  He told me that he never checks out his e-mail account,  and said”Nobody uses e-mail anymore.”  They use text and IM’s for all their communication.  Maybe there’s a trend there, and e-mail will go the way of the horse and buggy. 

 I need to go check out the opening of the grains, then take the rest of the day from there.

 

Jeff

8/8/08

Today was a good day.  I had a repeat of Wednesday’s day trade in the S&P and pulled a fair amount of money out of that trade.  My spreads lost a small  bit of money today, but I ended up soundly in the black by the close.  I was so distracted all day long, watching the markets, writing, taking phone calls, and arguing with my son…..all at the same time.  I found out that I didn’t win that surfboard that I bid on, getting out bid by $200.  Oh well, I can get the same board and pay retail if necessary.

 

Has anyone else but me noticed the change in the trade’s opinion of oil?  The herd has seemingly gotten bearish on oil.  Can you imagine a mere month ago if there was a blown up pipe line and Russia invading a country….oil would have gone up $10 in a day.  Instead, oil puked off $5.00 and change. 

 

I had my eye off the ball as far as the dollar is concerned.  Who ever thought we’d see such a move with the EUR like we have……..I missed that one.  It’s interesting how one can think that they are wired to the market and miss a big move 100%.  I didn’t even see that move coming

 

Jeff

330

Today ended up being a mirror image of yesterday. As bad as yesterday was, today was good…..very good.  However, the single directionality of the strong moves made trading like shooting fish in a barrel. 

 

I’m getting convinced that the psychology of the herd is changing.  It seems like everyone is looking for an excuse to buy equities.  This talk about the commodities blowoff is just fine with me.  I really don’t care about the price of commodities, just whether they move or not and if I can spread them or offset them with an  option.  I don’t have a clue about the bond or currency markets and am avoiding them like the plague.

 

Time to crunch some numbers.

 

I think my book should be finished in a week or so, depending on my distractions.  Writing a book might seem easy, but it’s been a task writing 150,000 words, even with going from notes.  I want to get this book done and put to bed.  I plan on using iUniverse as the publisher, as they seem to offer the best deal and were recommended by some people who know what they’re talking about.

 

I never managed to surf today.  John told me that it was epic, and he spent at least 10 hours in the water, and is now passed out on the floor while I’m sitting here on our couch writing this on my laptop.  There will be some good swell tomorrow, and I plan on hitting it for an hour or so before the market opens.

 

I fired off an email to a gallery in New York, kicking the tires of an impressionist piece I’m interested in.

Short Update

It might be interesting to watch the Minneapolis/Chicago wheat spread, as there’s some major trading opportunities there.

 

I’ve been spending much time working on my book, and fishing.  The fishing has yielded little, but the writing has been bountiful.  I’m hoping to meet my September deadline(self imposed).

 

John has been playing the same music over and over, and is trying to drive me insane.  He chose the group Abba to torment me with,  has been playing them non-stop, and I’m about ready to throw his hard drive in the gulf.  Speaking of the gulf, the water temp in the gulf is a balmy 88 degrees.  With the water temps so high, I’m waiting for a breakout of red tide.  The gulf is so warm, there’s no use for swimming, as the gulf is as warm as the air temp.

 

I ran up to Tampa yesterday to conduct some business, and noticed much less traffic than normal.  These high gas prices are affecting demand.  However, gasoline at the pump has gone down to $3.85 at our local filling station, and that’s a 15 cent drop in a week.  I wonder what the price level of gas will stabilize at to achieve homeostasis.  That’s the $64,000 question for today.

 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I need to work on some spread models, and continue to write some more.  We might run over to Pelican Alley for dinner…..maybe not.  There’s nothing in the fridge, and I better do something about rustling up some grub.  I’m not in the mood for grocery shopping, and dare not send John, as he will tear up my list and get whatever the hell he wants.  I’m not into some of the bizarre foods he brings home on a lark.

 

Jeff

Good night out

I took John and his girlfriend out to Cafe L’europe last night.  We had a great time and spent as much money as one could spend in Manhattan.  However, the food was exquisite, the atmosphere was romantic, and I let the kids swoon over one another….In other words, I tried to not embarrass John.

 

We’ll be staying at the Wakulla over in Cocoa Beach in a couple of weeks combining some surfing with a little trading….probbly very little trading.  Going over there is real vacation,except that Denise won;t be around spreading her cheer. She’s looking down on us every day, so won;t miss anything.

 

I have found myself with the interesting manifestation of my grief(and it’s non-stop and never ending).  I feel like Denise is watching over all of my moves, and is trying to communicate with me through  dreams.  Although the scientist in me would scoff at such outrageous claims, I’m still feeling her presence 24/7. 

 

In september, John will be back to school and I’ll be truly alone, left to my books, writing, music, surfing, and trading.  Something’s gotta give

 

 

I’m looking forward to the markets tomorrow,as there will be some great trading opportunities available.  I can do that now that the waves are flat

 

Jeff

 

Jeff

Important Rule

Today, I respected my rule that 6′ waves win out over trading.  That hurricane in the gulf is sending a groundswell in our direction, and I just had to be on it.  I put stops all over the place, forgot the markets, and surfed all day.  The waves were just sooooo good.  I haven’t seen a decent groundswell in awhile, and it was nice to be all over it.  I surfed for at least 6-7 hours, and John joined me for about 3 hours.  It was pretty good, and I brought out a longboard, and my i-Pod.  I listened to some jazz, and rode some serious waves, with a few of my friends.  We surfed until our arms became noodles, then sat in the parking lot of the jetty, talking story.  There were minimal crowds, the air temp was 90 and the water was 88 degrees.  The water gets hot in the gulf, and there was no cooling refreshment.  However, the great waves made the lack of refreshment worth it.  Now, I’m chilling, nursing a sunburn that has gotten worse, and am going to soak in the cool tub.  I might go out later tonight for a midnite swim.  I might take John over to a friend’s house, and have a few beers…..I just don’t know.

 

My sister is moving back to her house, telling me her job here is done.  I’m gonna miss her.

 

There is some more art on the horizon.

 

Jeff

Forgery

I wrote a piece over at Daily Speculations about a piece of art in my collection that was recently found out to be a fake, despite the fact I had good provenance.  The discovery was made while my collection was undergoing an annual review by my insurance company.  They brought in experts, and I had two independent evaluations made of the work, all of which were in agreement.  They did give the rest of my collection a clean bill of health, but still raised my premium by quite a bit.  I accept the raise in premium, as I’ve been on a buying binge the past couple of years.  The major gallery I bought it from went out of business some years ago, so I’m shit out of luck.  Sometimes, one can get screwed.

Maurice Utrillo was the painter, and here’s a picture of the forgery.

 

Despite the setback in the art market, I was pleased with the markets in other areas.  I’ve been pretty dialed in as of late, and my spreads have been going in my favor. 

 

Jeff

Another trip

I booked a couple of rooms at the Wakulla Suites, over in Cocoa Beach for a few weeks in August.  The place is very clean and mellow, with the most absolute beautiful pool garden I’ve seen in awhile.  Being pretty deluxe, despite it’s tacky exterior, hides a gem consisting of beautiful 2 bedroom fully furnished apartments….right next to the beach.  We go over there pretty often, and the place is always fully booked, but being good customers has that magical way of making a deluxe room appear before our eyes.  The Wakulla is spotlessly clean, a bit older, yet thoroughly modern.  The Wakulla is very surfer friendly, which is the main reason I like it.  It also offers a Waffle House right next door for early morning grinds,

 

This is shaping up to be our last vacation, as John is going back to college, and will probably want to outgrow surfing as surfing is frowned down by the Dons,(or any physical  activity that is frowned upon by the School of Clssical studies).  For that, I’m going to make him surf from dawn to  dusk.  One last shot of father and son surfing, youth recaptured….should be nice.

 

Jeff

 

If you’re ever in Cocoa Beach, stay at the Wakulla.  It’s not the Hilton,,,,,but it’s sure a whole lot more fun.

 

  http://www.wakullasuites.com/  Check out the site, take the virtual tour, and you will see why it’s easy to fall into the routine.  Plus, the rooms also have very fast internet connections for those who need to bang  out a trade.

 

http://www.metrotravelguide.com/hotelinfo/cocoa_beach/fl/usa/43211/#trafficLogID=525818164&visited=true

Here’s another link with more pictures.

 

We’ve always made Cocoa Beach or New Smyrna Beach our favorite dash to the other coast, and try to get as many runs in as possible whenever there’s a swell.  Swell or not, we’ll enjoy grinding at DakineDiegos, dining at the Pit, and eating at the restaurant of the pier….that is if we have free time.  Most time is spent in the water,  Cocoa Beach Surf Company even has a Starbucks on premisis.

 

 

I alwaus sleep a sound, restful sleep after a day of surfing. All of my problems in life seen to go away, and i’m living for the moment.  This one will be good and John has buy in.