I’ve been spending a lot of time surfing these past few days, and have neglected everything else. Well,almost everything. Last week, I bought FRE and FNM at fire sale prices. My rationale, (and it wasn’t a gamble), was that while the rumors of them going belly up were all over the place, I looked at their paper and the spread with treasuries hadn’t widened a whole lot. Since I figured that the bond market was yawning at the whole thing, I figured that it would be a good time to buy their stock. You know, the old saying, ”Buy when there’s blood in the street, sell when the trumpets are blowing” Today, I got in from surfing, and while the trumpets weren’t blowing, sold both stocks at the opening. I know it’s probably premature to blow out a stock that doubles or triples in a week, but I saw a lot of money on the table and took it.
We have a good company here in Sarasota called Sun Hydraulics(SNHY) that’s known for making quality products. A local group of investors that I know want to start messing around with the stock, and invited me aboard to handle the logistics. I respectfully declined, as I don’t really do the stock manipulation thing, and wouldn’t want to bear the wrath of the SEC anyways. Plus, I don’t work for investors, having learned that lesson the hard way. I should probably tell the story of the one investor (friend) I helped, made him a ton of money in three years, and ended up in a lawsuit where I ended up losing, suspended from the exchange for 30 days and paying a large fine from the CFTC. I don’t do investors. I’ll tell that story another time.
Enough for this lunch time post, as I hear the siren call of the waves. The surf has been really, really good for a week. John has been hitting the waves pretty hard also. We’ve enjoyed surfing together, and have matching sunburns to boot.
We’re going over to Cocoa Beach in two weeks, for a couple of weeks vacation. The place has been rented, and I’m pretty stoked. I’ve been having a wild hair for awhile to go buy a shack on the beach over there for awhile, and might look while we’re over there. The neighborhoods at the beach over there(south side) haven’t been gentrified like ours have, and most of the houses are from the late 50’s early 60’s. It’s a kind of trashed out neighborhood, but then again, I don’t mind trashed out.
I wrote a piece the other day over at Daily Speculations(which is on my blogroll to the right), about misleading surf reports, which is pretty interesting. You ought to check out my blurb. I called our local surf shop and they were calling the waves 1′. The reality is that it’s 4-6′ and glassy ground swell, pretty epic conditions. I’ll probably spend the rest of the afternoon hitting the waves. I’ll probably spend tonight nursing a sunburn, and working on my book.
Speaking of my book, I’ve selected iUniverse as my self publisher. It was recommended to me from some friends who know those kind of things. I will be giving away a number of copies.
I’m getting the art itch again.
Jeff
Man.. you lead an interesting life =)
I’ve gotta ask you.. what exactly does “paper and the spread with treasuries hadn’t widened a whole lot” mean. I’m thinking it has to do with the bond market.. but how do you figure that out? Where do you find the numbers that say the spread of a particular company? That was an amazing trade btw.
Thanks,
Gavin
Comment by Gavin — July 24, 2008 @ 6:25 pm
Gavin:
What I was talking about was that the price of debt(paper) of FRE and FNM hadn’t really changed in proportion to the treasury(which is backed 100% by the full faith of the US government). In other words, the bond market yawned at the troubles over there, figuring that the debt would be guaranteed, ergo, the stock would be a low risk trade. I get my numbers from the financial wires and quote services that I subscribe to. I watch those numbers of debt, because that’s another tool in my arsenal to spot undervalued equities. It’s a backdoor way of spotting an overlay, just like the quinella board at a track can find a good horse to bet win, place or show.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — July 25, 2008 @ 2:32 am
You’re living the dream that’s for sure, but it looks like a few high level risks were taken in the process. I’m definitely tentative about taking any risk on the stock market at the moment. Give me the waves any day …
Comment by Nat — July 25, 2008 @ 12:34 pm
hiya, Jeff,
Starting to consider getting a place somewhere down your way, I’d be very interested to hear numbers of various possibilities, if you start looking.
It is good to see you here too, looking forward to reading more.
Jonathan
Comment by Jonathan — July 25, 2008 @ 5:59 pm
Jonathan:
Are you the same Jonathan over on LJ?
Let me know what you’re looking for, a price range, and time limit, and I’ll hook you up with the best broker in town.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — July 25, 2008 @ 10:04 pm
Doesn’t the yield spread argument only imply that the *bonds* will get bailed out? How does this say that the stockholders will get a penny in a bailout situation? You could quite easily have a situation where the bonds get repaid at 100 cents on the dollar by taxpayers, but the stockholders get nada and see the price go to $0 overnight (like BSC but without the token $2 payment).
Comment by Matt — July 26, 2008 @ 1:03 pm
Matt:
I considered that only the bondholders would get bailed out, and the possibility of the stockholders getting zilch. However, my gut feeling saw a good trading opportunity, and I took advantage of it. I remember, back in the 80’s trying the same thing when Continental Illinois Bank went belly up. I bought their stock for $3 and change and ended up getting wiped out. You win some and you lose some, but with the price of FRE and FNMA being so cheap, it looked like a slam dunk. I only held both stocks for a couple of days…..they still could go to zero, but I wouldn’t want to short them at this level
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — July 26, 2008 @ 9:21 pm