Good trip

John and I are going to Paris, France.  We’re leaving tomorrow, early. 

 

Wish me luck at the auction.

 

I’ll try to post while we’re there, if we’re not too busy getting trashed on Absinthe.

 

Jeff

Paris trip

 

I’ll be here in a couple of days.

 

Staying at this place

 Hotel George V

Jeff

Pretty good week

I ended up having a pretty good week in the markets.  As I expected volatility, my trades worked out, and I’m firmly in the black. 

 

John and I are leaving for Paris on July 1st.  I scored some tickets on Orbitz, and we’ll be staying for a couple of days.  We plan on hitting the Sotheby’s Impressionist auction, and I plan on showing John some of my old haunts from my days when I used to go there regularly.  I remember my poor student days, going to Paris and eschewing the Left Bank, preferring to hang around the 16th arrondissement,  and strolling down the Champs-Elysee.  I loved the outdoor cafes, bistros, and bars, and think that it will be a good thing to hit Paris during the summer when it’s quiet.. 

 

I think it’s time to stroll over to Pelican Alley for an early dinner, and a couple of beers.  I need to then come home and work on my book, which is progressing nicely.  I’m hoping to have it done by September, and at the rate I’m going, I will make my deadline.

 

John has been home, and has had a pretty busy social calendar. He seems to be quite the favorite of the ladies, and is probably considered to be a good catch.  As I’ve said before, he’s been watching me trade for the past week or so.  I’ve also been helping him with his poker game, as it needs a lot of work.  I’ve been drilling in the probabilities of possible hands, as it is essential to know the odds.  He needs a lot of work,but will probably go back to school and will be able to hold his own in a game.  I need him to tutor me in chess, as he’s gotten to be a much better player than me….and I taught him the game in the first place.

Chess and poker are the best games to master if you want to be a good trader.  There are so many trading lessons in each game.

 

Jeff 

 

 

Quantum

Here’s a fascinating video, very elementary, but interesting.  I’ve been spending the afternoon explaining Quantum mechanics to my son…in a very simplistic sense, as my son has very poor math skills.

 

Jeff

Volatility

Last week, I positioned myself for some volatility….today, I was rewarded by it.  My grain spreads have been paying off, especially the chicago/minneapolis wheat spread.  My corn spread hit me for a couple of cents, but my beans reallyh took off.  All of my puts really increased in price in the equities complex.

 

Now, I’m really confused by the gold and oil markets.  I’d love to hear erudite feedback regarding those markets.  I ran some numbers about the time periods when I’m confused to see if I could find a trend in what I was confused in, but everything cancels itself out, with no net trends apparently showing up. 

 

My market psychology has been almost 100% in the good the past couple of weeks, as I’ve managed to compartmentalize my sorrows.  My son has been standing over my shoulder while I watch and trade the market, as he’s interested in seeing where his tuition to Yale comes from.

 

I think that there’s some merit in the Royal Bank of Scotland’s prediction of a huge drop in the S&P.  I know that I followed their advice with some decent success.  We shall see.

 

Paris….June 1st…..sounds nice.  I’m still trying to find a decent hotel to my liking.

 

Jeff

 

 

Under the weather

I’ve been under the weather all day, and haven’t done too much.  I’ve stayed in bed and caught up on my reading.  I think that all of this is catching up on me.

 

I offered a bet yesterday, offering 1000:1 odds and have found no takers.  It’s funny how people will bloviate, yet won’t put their money where their mouth is.

 

I’ve got six books going right now that I’m reading. I start one, read a little, then start another.  This is a problem I’ve always had.  However, I didn’t start any new books.

 

I booked a flight to Paris at the beginning of July, which will be a quick 4 day trip for John and me.  I still haven’t booked a room, but the George V seems like the logical place to stay.  I’ll let you know what I end up doing.

 

The weather here has cooled off, and we’re getting rain.

 

My positions have remained pretty static today, and I lost a couple of dollars.  No big deal.

Jeff 

Some action

I’m a frequent commenter over at Scholars and Rogues, a decidedly liberal blog.  I’m somewhat of a pariah over there, and folks usually don’t respond to my comments, and ignore me.  One of the writers, Brian Angliss, discussed the fears of some that the Hadron Collider will cause a black hole that will eat up the world.  I chimed in after another great guy,Dr Slammy, offered to bet the prophets of doom $100 that Brian is right and that Europe won’t be swallowed up after the test.  I added to Dr. Slammy’s bet increasing the odds to 1000:1 any size.  Here’s the article over here.

http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2008/06/22/the-large-hadron-collider-will-not-eat-the-world/#comment-44213

 

If anybody thinks that Europe is going to get swallowed up after the test, lets bet.  I’ll offer 1000:1, any size of bet you care to make.  I’ll even throw in some of my finest art into the kitty.  My account is flush and that’s why I’ll offer anyone a chance to turn $100 into $100,000…..or more depending on what you want to bet.  I have the means to cover the bets….show me the money.

 

I take Paypal.

 

Jeff

No opinion

I  have positions in the market, but I have no opinion of the market  that would be meaningful.  My positions are doing nicely, and today I made some slight adjustments, and rolled over some months.  My spreading is working, and I keep bettering my basis.  I own a lot of options, and have them hedged by being short other options.  I need some volatility in the market, but that’s about all.  I don’t think things are going to calm down very much for the next couple of weeks.

 

One of my readers came to me for some advice, and I’m going to do my best to steer him in the proper direction.  I’ve mentored people in the past, in memory of the crusty old pit traders that taught me how to read the market.  Those guys liked me(I respected them a whole lot) and taught me a many things, but the main thing they taught me was to fear the market, but not to fear the risk.  Risk is meant to be quantified, and then managed.  Although I’ve come a long way from being a snot nosed 23 year old, scalping 1/4 cents on 5 lots of wheat, nothing has really changed.  My mindset certainly hasn’t changed one bit, despite the size of my positions are a wee bit larger than when I started trading with $20K back in the late 70’s. 

 

A friend of mine wants to trade for a living.  He has been papertrading for about a year, and has shown a net profit of around 5%.  He got mad at me when I told him to consider another career.  Since I know him pretty well, I know that he’s fundamentally lazy, and is looking to score a quick buck.  He papertrades all day, then hits the bars at night.  I told him that I do at least 5 hours of homework every night, plus I maintain a rigorous writing schedule to get my book on track.  He doesn’t see the necessity of homework.  Trading, like anything else involves, practice, practice, practice.   Another reason I don’t think he will make it is that he’s a very poor game player.  A plurality of profitable traders excell in such games as chess, poker, checkers, backgammon, and sports.  A little hunger and a touch of larceny(not the illegal kind) also aid in the development of a good trader.  I make it 9:1 that my friend won’t make it for 2 years, and I even offered him those odds.  He refused to even bet on humself….which is an indicator in itself.

 

 

That Miro showed up on my doorstep today, and John was pleased.  He’ll have some decent art to hang in his room next year……I’m lending him a couple of minor drawings to decorate his walls.

 

I’m buying tickets on Orbits tonight to go spend a few days in Paris to go to the Sotheby’s Impressionist auction.  John is looking forward to the trip, and plans on becoming a boulevardier.  I laugh at the thought and the folly of youth.  Oh well, at least he’ll get to run around Paris without me chaperoning him.  Hopefully, I’ll come home with some art….If I don’t, at least I had a good trip.

 

I still haven’t ruled out Mexico, but I’ve been still subject to the laws of inertia.  The thought of Denise’s 50th birthday, which will be in a few days, has been weighing heavily on my mind.  Although I can form rational thoughts, and can have coherent conversations, my mind is still a mess.

 

Jeff

 

Surfing the storm

I spent the morning in quiet solitude….reading the paper,doing a crossword, and drinking some coffee.  The weather looked threatening all morning, but nothing happened.  Around noon, the bottom dropped out and we got 5 inches of rain in an hour long deluge.  A front of squall lines marched relentlessly across our state, combined with some tropical disturbances, made for some interesting weather. After the rain, the gulf kicked up, providing some sloppy but ridable waves.  John declined to participate, but I hit the waves hard.  I brought my waterproof i-Pod, paddling out to the sounds of Mahler.  Making it out to the lineup, I found my takeoff point, and proceeded to catch a lot of chest high waves.  I surfed the bulk of the afternoon, even staying in the water when squalls were going over,  Hard rain when surfing is one of the coolest experiences one can imagine-I can’t even describe how surreal it is.  My mood changed, and I cranked my i-Pod to my college playlist, and reminisced to the tunes I listened to in college.  That started me thinking about Denise, and I felt a kind of joy that I haven’t had for awhile.

 

I got tired around six, and rode one last wave. 

Tonight, I’m going to work on some dings on some boards, and am also going to try to fix a crack on an old board I’m retoring.

 

Jeff

Art Auction-Paris

I just got the Sotheby’s catalogue for their Impressionist and Modern art sale in Paris on July 2-3.  I’m seriously drooling.  Somehow, I think John and I will end up in Paris on July 1.

 

It’s been so long since I’ve been to Paris…..John was an 11 year old kid the last time we went there.

 

This computer network for our house is so cool.  Wherever we are, we can log in to our network.  John wasn’t entirely altruistic when he set up the server.  Since his school has limits on bandwith, and blocks sites, he plans on logging on to our system, going wherever he wants, then downloading everything to our server.  He can then put the data on his computer at night while he’s sleeping, using a slow transfer rate, therefore bypassing the school’s throttle.

 

My positions are going much, much better today.

 

Jeff