Comments on: Sitting around number crunching http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/sitting-around-number-crunching/ Trading, surfing, and my extensive art collection discussed here Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:13:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU By: masteroftheuniverse http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/sitting-around-number-crunching/#comment-849 masteroftheuniverse Tue, 13 May 2008 23:19:43 +0000 http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/?p=281#comment-849 Nathan, I use TS for mainly execution, but I get my executions done other places, too. I use some of the number crunching programs on TS, but use lots of other programs also. I've got about 100 years of tick by tick data of just about everything that has ever traded and like to play with it. With this data, I've made some amazing discoveries, that may or may not coorelate with future action.....still amazing. I'm not a technical analyst, but prefer statistical and counting methods, combined with fundamentals. Jeff Nathan,
I use TS for mainly execution, but I get my executions done other places, too. I use some of the number crunching programs on TS, but use lots of other programs also. I’ve got about 100 years of tick by tick data of just about everything that has ever traded and like to play with it. With this data, I’ve made some amazing discoveries, that may or may not coorelate with future action…..still amazing. I’m not a technical analyst, but prefer statistical and counting methods, combined with fundamentals.

Jeff

]]> By: nathan http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/sitting-around-number-crunching/#comment-848 nathan Tue, 13 May 2008 17:37:07 +0000 http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/?p=281#comment-848 HI Jeff, I was curious do you use tradestation for number crunching, or just for execution? HI Jeff, I was curious do you use tradestation for number crunching, or just for execution?

]]> By: allocator http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/sitting-around-number-crunching/#comment-846 allocator Mon, 12 May 2008 02:30:07 +0000 http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/?p=281#comment-846 Hi Jeff, I think my oil and gas shorts will work out soon - I'm actually hoping for higher prices on both so I can really latch for the sharp correction I expect. It was interesting, on Friday a guy came on BNN showing an aggregated seasonal chart on crude oil. Since 1984, oil has had a big seasonal move from Dec to early May (the guy pegged this Friday May 9 as the top). The reason is a refinery buildup of gasoline inventories for the summer. There's a comparitively smaller but significant July to Sep seasonal when refiners switch to building heating oil inventories. It doesn't mean the current bull run will stop instantly, but it may make it more vulnerable to a sharp correction. Gold has an interesting seasonal as well - a big move up also starting in August or so for 2-3 months building up to India's "wedding season". Apparently they use a lot of gold jewelry. The May through July seasonal showed a decline, flattening out into August. Combine that with a stabilized US dollar, possibly a rising one, and gold could see some more downside in the next couple of months. Re the grains, I don't really care which way they move, just that corn, soybeans, and wheat correlate for a little while so I can get some volatility out of the ETFs. I think gold, oil, natural gas and grains/beans are all going to have an interesting summer - mainly because of all the money that's tied up in them at the moment. Couple that with weather news and you've quite the cocktail for volatility. Cheers, George Hi Jeff,

I think my oil and gas shorts will work out soon - I’m actually hoping for higher prices on both so I can really latch for the sharp correction I expect. It was interesting, on Friday a guy came on BNN showing an aggregated seasonal chart on crude oil. Since 1984, oil has had a big seasonal move from Dec to early May (the guy pegged this Friday May 9 as the top). The reason is a refinery buildup of gasoline inventories for the summer. There’s a comparitively smaller but significant July to Sep seasonal when refiners switch to building heating oil inventories. It doesn’t mean the current bull run will stop instantly, but it may make it more vulnerable to a sharp correction.

Gold has an interesting seasonal as well - a big move up also starting in August or so for 2-3 months building up to India’s “wedding season”. Apparently they use a lot of gold jewelry. The May through July seasonal showed a decline, flattening out into August. Combine that with a stabilized US dollar, possibly a rising one, and gold could see some more downside in the next couple of months.

Re the grains, I don’t really care which way they move, just that corn, soybeans, and wheat correlate for a little while so I can get some volatility out of the ETFs.

I think gold, oil, natural gas and grains/beans are all going to have an interesting summer - mainly because of all the money that’s tied up in them at the moment. Couple that with weather news and you’ve quite the cocktail for volatility.

Cheers,
George

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