Today’s market action was pretty choppy. It was a good trader’s market, and I tried to trade. I got whacked in a crude trade, taking a little hit. I made a little monjey in a quick bond scalp, only to give it up in another little scalp. My position trades are all performing nicely, with my options, grain spreads, S&P trade, and other grain spreads doing extremely well. It’s too bad I had to lose a lot of today’s profits attempting to trade.
Jeff
My S&P position made a bit of a rebound, and my spreads behaved nicely. I have some various option spreads going, and they didn’t lose any money, nor did they really profit. I liked the action in the corn, with corn not getting hammered like one would expect in a day like today. That gives me a good indication for a huge corn spread I’m going to put on as soon as my indicators are fully met. Wheat behaved nicely, and my spread moved $0.07 in my favor. I really need to stay away from copper, as I got hammered again today, losing a couple of grand. I act very irrational when it comes to copper, and I consider copper trading to be a vice. The oil market is very confusing to me right now, and I’m really confused by the gasoline market. It looks like there should be some good spreading opportunities, but the trouble is I don’t know whether to buy or sell the spread. Oh well, the tape will answer that soon.
John and I drank some absinthe last night, and we still have our ears intact.
I’m going to run over to Pelican Alley for a quick bite to eat. John is going to see a play at the Florida Studio Players tonight with a date. My sister has been busy running our house and telecommuting. She has been a real gem.
Jeff
Today was a beautiful day, with temperatures in the high 80’s. The very bright sun, and mistral like wind made our region of Florida seem like somewhere else. The waves cooperated, although they were only about waist high. However, that was an excuse enough to spend the day, all day, surfing. I wore my waterproof i-Pod, and jammed to Coltrane while flying down the high line of the wall of the wave. I wiped out listening to Zappa, and sat outside communing with nature to the sounds of “Hotel California.” After many hours of surfing, I finally paddled in, really appreciating this summer swell. The swell will probably be gone tomorrow, but the memories of it will remain in my head for awhile.
I’ve spent a lot of time surfing as of late. I’ve also been working on my book, finishing another chapter and changing my outline slightly. I plan on doing some number crunching tonight, but will probably let all my computers work while I read a book, drink some absinthe, and listen to some Mozart. My 80 year old French girlfriend just came back from a visit to her home town of Avignon, and gave me a bottle of absinthe….the real stuff, not the faux stuff sold here in the USA. John wants to get wasted on it tonight, but I told him that absinthe is like Mezcal in that the special properties are all the stuff of urban legend.
My drawings arrived by courier, and I’m pleased. I have no plans on framing them for awhile, and will put them in storage for awhile…with the rest of our collection. The gallery owner who’s storing our collection asked me if he could display a few pieces, and I had to say no. I’m paying him to store it safely, and not to display it. My sister is coveting my collection, and I joked that she’s going to put potassium cyanide in my food to collect. What she doesn’t know is that I’m going to give her a small drawing for her birthday, one by Edgar Degas.
Meanwhile, I can’t wait to return to trading tomorrow after this long weekend. My heart is still very heavy, and I don’t think it ever will be fixed. Meanwhile, I’ll have to make lemonade with the lemons I’ve been handed.
Jeff
Last night, john and I went surfing. I took this picture of John on the left and his friend on the right, splitting a wave
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We surfed until well after dark, and returned at the crack of dawn to surf all day long. I surfed for at least 9 hours, only taking a couple of refreshment breaks. The air is so warm, with a hot wind blowing, and the water offering a nice cool refreshment. I didn’t properly use enough sunblock….neither did John, and we’re both suffering from severe sunburn. My sister, who’s been staying with us, hung around the house and waited for the courier service to deliver my art. The courier never came, and an online check showed the package still in Tampa with a delivery on Sunday….of all days. Oh well, we’re paying enough for the delivery, and Sunday will be OK. I’ll have to put the art in storage later this week, as we’re going to Mexico. My sister is urging us to leave, as we’re cramping her style. Anyways, as of now, John is passed out after a hard day of surfing and I’m contemplating on going back out for one last ride. I’m going to set the clock for early tomorrow, as this nice summer swell is going to get better, with the waves going to chest-head high.
In other news, an old elementary school friend of John’s was arrested yesterday for stealing copper from a construction site. The newspaper had quite a buzz about it, as he was a state champion athelete in high school. His accomplice, also known to John, was forbidden to ever step foot in my house. Somehow, when I first met the kid, my radar went off and he was only 11 at the time. It’s funny how hunches can be right, and I was 100% accurate in my prediction that the kid would become a criminal….he did three years in juvenile prison and got out on his 18th birthday. Now, he’s going to go to real prison. John was quite dismayed at this news.
I came back from surfing this afternoon and took a shower in our outside shower area. The shower area has a little privacy fence, but one can see into our house through a window. I saw the top of my sister’s head while she was sitting on one of our high backed chairs, and for a split second thought it was Denise.
I’m still not over her.
Jeff
While the markets are weathering a massive head wind, the sails are fully extended, and things are going to go one way or another very quickly. I put on some combinations of options to take advantage of these erratic conditions. It took the better part of the day to leg into the strategy I stayed up all night hammering out. Either way, the worst I will do is lose, and I’ve done that before. However, I have a good feeling about my positions and strategy. So far, the day ended up in black ink, even losing a ton in the long S&P futures contract which was offset by the increase in the options prices. I am really pleased with my hedged long position, despite the fact that I might profit little. The strategy is very sound, and has lends some elegance to an otherwise boring, losing trade.
The grain markets have been very interesting, with many opportunities presenting themselves. My spreads held up very nicely today. I expect to see many trading opportunities in the summer as the grain crop progresses all the way through harvest time. It might become a weather market, or stay a hedge fund-dollar driven market. Whatever, one will see some excitement in the grains this summer.
I’m waiting for my art to show up….It was supposed to show up today, but will end up getting here tomorrow. I posted some pictures off the Sotheby’s site to give a hint of what they are. I will post a full size of both drawings as soon as they arrive.
I’m headed over to Pelican Alley with John for some grub and strong drink. Perhaps, we might go on a little night surfing sufari after dark…..maybe not. It depends.
Jeff
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The S&P trade was basically flat today, but boy, did my wheat spread move. I was tempted to add to it, but decided to go surfing with my son instead.
I’ve noticed a lot more volatility in the grain spreads, the most since 1986, when some spreads moved $0.70 in 4 days. This action is pretty good, as I have a pretty good indicator of spread direction, and can sometimes pull a few dollars out.
However, as good as the markets can be, a good day surfing always beats a good day in the market.
Jeff
John and I went to my favorite coffee house in Sarasota, called “It’s A Grind,” only to find out they went out of business last week. I don’t understand why they closed, as they always had a good crowd, and coffeehouses offer good margins. ”It’s a Grind” was a franchise, but had a really mellow sense of individuality. The coffee was first rate, they had fast wifi, and great music. The employees treated their customers like family, and Denise and I spent a lot of time going there, and got to know the help. I’m really going to miss that place.
Jeff
My S&P hedged position went flat today, with the market’s decline. I did make a couple of dollars on my wheat spread, and was pleased with that. Seeing all of the blood on the street, I did the only sensible thing I could. I took my son surfing all afternoon. The waves were decent, and uncrowded, and we had fun. Surfing is the best thing on the planet.
John keeps telling me that I should just cash out, and retire to a good world class point break…..Not that the thought hasn’t entered my mind.
I’ll be posting a picture of my new acquisition of art in a couple of days, as soon as it gets here.
Jeff
I put on an interesting wheat spread today, nothing really huge, but a nice position. It’s not a nearby spread, and should make me some money over the next couple of months. The S&P keeps going up a little at a time, and I’m happy to be right about that market. As of 11AM, I own no more sugar or options at all. I ended up netting about a grand on the trade, which is still a win. Still, I had all that capital tied up for quite a time period.
I’ve been looking at tracking the S&P vs. Obama’s successes and failures. It’s interesting to note that the all time high on the S&P was at Obama’s lowest polling numbers. The coorelations I’ve found are pretty interesting.
I’m pretty bullish on the dollar, as it looks good right now. The dollar has come off it’s lows, and favorible sentiment is increasing despite the overall bearish consensus. I like to remind my friends that things aren’t so hot in Euroland. I was talking to one of my perennial bearish friends, and he couldn’t understand my argument that the USA is such a great place to invest and will do well over the long term. For one thing, there’s huge liquidity, property rights, laws, low taxes, and people in the USA work very hard. The USA also has a billion different places to park your money. Productivity is really gone up over the past few decades. As for the shrinking middle class….our middle class owns their houses, has plasma TV’s, drives 1.7 cars, eats out three nights a week, and gets two weeks vacation a year. Despite the negative savings rate and huge borrowing, the middle class will continue to improve their lot. As for the poor, government entitlements have helped create much of the cyclic poverty in this country.
Jeff
I’ve been think a lot about Spalding Gray lately. For those of you who don’t know who he was, he was a premier monologuist, actor, writer, poet, and generally all around good guy. His credits include such gems as “Swimming to Cambodia,” “Gray’s Anatomy,” and “Monster in a Box.” He had acting roles in such movies as “The Killing Fields,” “Beaches,” and many other flicks. He appeared as a normal person without any celebrity attached whatsoever. Spalding committed suicide back in 2004 by jumping off the Staten Island Ferry, after suffering severe depression resulting from a horrible auto accident. Spalding, although a few years older than me, was a good friend of mine. His father was a good friend of my dad, and his grandfather was a good friend of my grandfather. Our families have been friends for at least 4 generations, maybe five. Spalding, or Spud, Spuddie, or whatever you called him was a first rate guy, with a sharp mind that one rarely runs across. He used to come down and visit his late father, Rocky, who lived next door to my parents. We had some fun times, fishing, going to bars, and partying hard. He was a very complex mind, with many of the quirks of genius. However, I really enjoyed hanging around with him, when he was around. His suicide wasn’t unexpected by me, as I saw it coming a mile away. Still, it was very tragic, and he left a widow and a couple of kids. His father has been dead for awhile, and his step-mother still lives in our neighborhood part time. I ran into her the other day, and we had a nice chat. I re-introduced my son to her, and later told him to look up Spalding’s works. John checked out his bio, and downloaded bootleg copies of a few of his works. John was, needless to say, impressed with my old friend. He asked me many questions, and made me drag out old pictures. He furthermore added that he would like to grow up and be just like Spalding. I told him that with his mind, his creativity, and the WASPiness, he could probably pull it off. Thinking about it all, I realized that there is no better legacy to Spalding than my son’s admiration.
I’ve been having a rather rough few days, with the loss of Denise weighing heavily on my mind. I find myself still feeling her presence, and it’s rather unsettling. John is feeling very melancholy as of late, and has been throwing himself into his quest for more knowledge. He had a little get together last night with some friends who live in Sarasota County that all went to Exeter, Andover, Choate, and assorted Ivy league schools. Our house was preppie central, and I found out that those kids certainly know how to party. One thing that escaped me was that I never knew that at the good Ivy league schools, each institution is composed of two different schools…..those who went to prep schools, and those who came from public schools. The two groups rarely intersect, except in class. The preppies have their own fraternities, and clubs, and the kids are usually legacies with money. The public school kids, who are probably much brighter, are too busy to party. I stress to my son to be nice to everyone.
Jeff
Jeff
