Decent day

 

I stayed away from the markets, and went surfing all morning.  There was a huge wind blowing, and the waves were pretty choppy.  Still, the feeling out there was wonderful, and I felt better than I have in the month since Denise died.  I managed to snag quite a few rides, and gave my waterproof i-Pod a total workout listening to good jazz.  I was able to surf until my arms felt like spaghetti, which was by noon.  I got back up to the house and noticed a message on my machine.  It was from the delivery service regarding my new painting.  They were letting me know it was being delivered around 4PM.  They didn’t deliver it until around 5:30, and when I opened the crate, was quite pleased with the beauty of it.  I haven’t hung it up, instead moving a charcoal off our mantle, and resting it there.  After my painting was put in place, I called a good buddy of mine and had him come over to check it out.  We sat around, had a couple of drinks, and shot the shit.  I felt sociable for the first time in a month, and my friend lied to me on how good I looked….it must have been the alcohol.  He stayed until about 8:30, and left as he was going to a party up in Sarasota.  All in all, it was a decent day….

 

Tonight, I’m going to attempt to move off the couch where I’ve been attempting to sleep for the past month, and am going to sleep in our bed.

 

As far as the market’s concerned, I’m glad I had nothing to do with it today.  Sugar went up a couple of ticks, and that’s all I noticed.  I should do some homework tonight as far as some wheat spread are concerned, but will probably blow it off.  I probably won’t do any trading tomorrow either, as it looks like the waves will be much better than today.  This is a real late cold front, and I had to wear a wetsuit…in April.  I guess the global warming is cooling off.

 

Jeff

Something to look forward to

There is a cold front making it’s way down here, and the gulf is showing indications of a good size swell hitting us tomorrow.  It’s surfable right now, but I’m going to wait until tomorrow, about 6:30 AM and hit it with a dawn patrol.  I think that some waves at my beach are just the tonic I need.

Hopefully, I can just blow off the markets all day, and just surf for about 6-8 hours.  At least after a good surf, I might get a good night’s sleep.  I haven’t had one of those in awhile.

 

Jeff

Can’t see the forest

One of my Minneapolis buddies and I talk every day about market conditions.  He’s right on the floor, and I usually talk to him before the market opens, and sometimes during the day. I never bother him after the close, as he’s always down at the Wagon (a local watering hole), pounding down a few.  I use him to get down my Minneapolis trades, and he gets good fills.   We both marvel at how everyone sees everything through a set of filters that alter their own personal thoughts and emotions.  He sees market moves that I wouldn’t have ever guessed, and vice versa.  I didn’t see March Minneapolis wheat going to $25 the week before expiration, but he saw it as a slam dunk.  He didn’t see the May/July spread, took the other side of me in fact, but in that case I was right and he was wrong. However, despite being wrong on the trade. I suspect he still made a few bucks legging in and out.  He knows exactly what calls to sell, but I do a better job with managing puts. We agree that everyone can find a winning trade, and the trade can be obvious to one but not another.  We both agree that it’s handling those pesky losing trades that get in the way that separate the winners from the losers.  Since both of us have enjoyed a bit of moderate success over the years, we both respect one another’s opinions and are pretty close. 

 

Sometimes, you become so into the market, narrowing your vision to get a closer view, you can’t see the forest through the trees.

 

Jeff

Gut Feelings

After trading for a few decades, I’ve discovered that one can have a perfect set-up for a short term trade, but if you don’t have a gut feeling about the trade…..it will probably end up in the loser column.

I have a gut feeling about the July Minneapolis/Chicago wheat spread….hmmm.

 

Jeff

 

 

Slowly coming around

My sugar trade is humming along long, losing money in the futures, yet is a free long position.  I was watching that trade when I decided to sell two June S&P @ 1348.80  in the morning.  The pain point was nill in the trades, and I rode it all the way down.  The options to cover looked expensive, and I decided to blow out of the trade at the close with a decent profit.  I covered @ 1333.20.  That was a nice daytrade.  However, it taught me several lessons:

1.  I’m not thinking clearly.

2.  My quick “in my head math skills ” have deteriorated significantly.

3.  My courage has left the room.

4.  I’m not emotionally ready to handle any size in the S&P greater than 2 full contracts.

5.  I feel panicky during the entire trade, feelings I’ve never felt since 1983.

6.  I’m worried that I won’t be able to calculate my grain spreads quickly in my head anymore.

7.  I do still know when to pull the trigger on a trade, and know how to move my stops to protect me.

8.  I have a long way to go before I’m rehabilitated.

9.  I need to take baby steps like 15-20 contract maximums in grains and sugar, 5 contracts in bonds , 2-5 contracts in the S&P, no currencies or copper, 2 contracts in silver, and 2-5 contracts in gold.  Until I can start legging into some worthwile spreads, I need small limits.

It was interesting watching the action on GE today.  As GE goes,so does the economy….some people say. 

 

I’m still looking at DECK.

 

Some ladies came over and collected Denise’s clothes, and  I made my best efforts to hold back my tears, but failed.  The ladies were so nice, and were very gracious.  I’ll have to make sure to put a few extra dollars in the collection plate on Sunday.  

 

John got his Toughbook computer and was really happy.  I made sure I didn’t win the Miro, and I was happy about that. 

I went over to Pelican Alley for supper this evening, and had a great baked grouper dish.  I also had three Irish Coffee’s for dessert.  The owner let me cut in line and gave me “our table,” much to the chagrin of the others who were waiting in line.  We’ve had the same table there for years, and never fail to get it.  The owner and staff took the best of care with me, and I ignored the inquisitive looks from the other patrons, and just sat there, ate my meal, and daydreamed.

 

Now at home, I’ve got a touch of sleeplessness, and need to  get some sleep pronto.  Tomorrow, I need to sign my tax forms, enclose an extremely huge check, and send them off.  Hope there’s no problem with the taxes.

Insomnia

I haven’t been sleeping very well, and the sleep I’ve had has been of a restless variety.  I’ve been staying up really, really late watching TV.  I haven’t watched television in years, save the occasional viewing of the Simpsons or some show on CNBC.  I now understand why television has replaced religion as the opiate of the masses.  It’s easy to get hooked on a show, and the additional benefit is that you don’t have to think.

I went through Denise’s computer yeterday, and answered all of her e-mails.  I copied her blog on my hard drive, then deleted it.  John wanted it deleted, and I was on the fence, so I preserved it on the computer for posterity.  I re-formatted her hard drive with XP, and drove the laptop over to our church told them to do what they wanted with it.  I’ve got some ladies coming over from our church to go through her clothes and take them away.  I saved a few precious items of hers, but the rest of the stuff would be better off being used by someone else.  Today, I need to go and answer about 100 e-mails that need attention.  I’ve been very bad with my follow through as of late, and haven’t been returning phone calls, e-mails, etc.  At least I’m managing to pay the bills.

 

I decided not to rent that condo in Sarasota, as the hallway outside had a very peculiar smell.  Bad smells can turn me off in a heartbeat.  I called a broker yesterday to find me a three bedroom place with a 6-12 month lease.  Wherever I go, I will keep John’s bedroom intact.  He will always have a bedroom at my house, much like Denise still has a bedroom at her parents house.  I haven’t spoken much about her parents, but they aren’t very polite to me, nor have they ever been anything more than civil.  They never liked me in the first place, and opposed our marrage vehemently from the start.  They equate my speculations with gambling, and that I’m a parasite of society.    They also are convinced that my lovely wife married much below her station, which is funny because my folks thought the same. They blame me for her death, and I understand their loss.

 

Sugar has been going up today, and I covered my position with options.  Now, I have a free long position.  I’m glad to get that monkey off my back, as I really shouldn’t be trading right now. 

 

I’ve been going through my writings and journals from the past 30 years, and with some creative editing, have enough material for a book.

 

Meanwhile, I’m waiting for my beautiful painting to show up in the next couple of days.  Since it’s already framed, I will be able to hang it up right away.  I might have to move some pieces around and do a little re-arranging, but that’s not a bad thing.  Life is all about rearrangment, anyways.

I really could use some waves right now, but the gulf is as flat as a pancake.

 

Jeff

Tough day

I had a tough day today.  Perhaps it was delayed stress, or just the profound grief…I don’t know.  Having my lifetime partner wrenched from my arms at such an early age has taken a major toll on my psyche.  I spent most of the day in a fog, just looking at my sugar trade, trading at a slight loss.  I didn’t do anything, and had no ideas about anything.  My edge has been severely diminished, and I’m able to at least realize that fact.  I won’t be plunging in any 600 contract grain trades for awhile, that’s for sure…..Well, I might if the conditions are just right.

 

I’ve been re-reading “Fifty Years in Wall Street” by Henry Clewes.  I don’t think this book is in print anymore, and my dog eared copy is about 60 years old.  Although it was published in 1908, it is a remarkable book, with much trading information that’s very appropriate for these times.   I re-read it every year or so, and glean something new every time I read it.  Fascinating book if you can find it, and I recommend it to anyone who wants to learn more about speculation.  It’s an easy read, historical,and on par with Livermore.

 

My son has been trying to talk me into writing a book about my trading adventures.  I wouldn’t mind doing that, but am not really sure I have the mindset to see a book like that come to completion.  I might write one anyways, and put it in .pdf form for anyone who wants to read it for free.  However, I wouldn’t divulge any of my trading secrets, which would be folly.

 

My new painting should be here in a week or so, and I’m excited.

 

Jeff

Long Sugar

My sugar went down today, and I decided to give it a couple of days to see what it does.  I have an exit strategy for the downside, and If it loses money…..oh well, my position isn’t that big. 

I think I’ve come back too soon.

Jeff

Back in the market

I bought some sugar today.  Not a big position, but big enough.  I’m back in the saddle again.

Beautiful Woman in Thought

 

A nice drawing that I’ve had stored away for years and years.  The paper is a little worn, and the work is in poor condition.  I need to get this framed and kept in a darker room so it doesn’t fade or decompose.

 

The weather here has taken a turn for the worse.  We’re expecting about 6 inches of rain tonight, with a possibility of hail and tornadoes. 

 

Jeff