I’ve decided to start trading again soon. My life needs direction, and I need to stop bobbling around like a cork on the ocean. My plan is to limit my size of trades, setting a 5 contract default on futures, options, and a small default on stocks. If a position goes my way, I’ll add to it, but plan on being very careful. I won’t hang around with losers, like I never do. My head has been brimming with ideas, but fear and indecisiveness have rendered me useless since my lovely wife’s death. I think it’s time to step up to the plate and do my job.
That gallery in New York made me a counter offer on that painting….we’re getting closer.
The waves were pretty good today, and I also found a new BBQ joint in Sarasota that is excellent. Their sliced pork, wet, was superb. The roasted ears of corn were very good, and the cole slaw was the best I’ve ever tasted. They added a pinch of celery seed to the slaw which made a remarkable combination. Portions were huge, and this was one of the best apres-surf meals I ever have eaten.
Jeff
Well that’s getting back on the horse. You’ll do fine Jeff. Keep “Reminiscences…” in mind and you can’t get hurt. You’ve got the tape-reading instincts, and the savvy to let the market tell you what it’s doing. Just listen to the market and trust your trigger finger.
That BBQ place sounds great. Just came back with the boys from watching the movie “21″, the story about the MIT team that made millions in Vegas with their counting and role-playing system. It was pretty good. I had read the book “Bringing Down the House” and had enjoyed that immensely. The movie is mostly true to the book, except for the ending, which was embellished for movie-goers.
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — March 29, 2008 @ 4:32 am
George,
I’m going to ease back in slowly and take baby steps. Trading small amounts should allow me to think clearly. Yesterday, I went on Pokerstars and played for a few hours, and played some more today. I played in some medium sized games, and realize that I still have my groove. What the hell, if I can still play a solid poker game, the trading should be OK.
I’ll always remember Livermore….he’s never far from my mind.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 29, 2008 @ 4:40 am
George,
I really like the stuff you bring over to DS. Very well thought out. WSe’ll have to give your wife a dose of chloral hydrate, let her sleep awhile, and get you into the futures market. Looking at the grains action, I wouldn’t touch any of them with a 10 foot pole now that I don’t have a position.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 29, 2008 @ 4:44 am
Actually I’m back in the futures market, only with very little leverage (2x through the ETFs). I made some more changes today. I’m now short each of grains, oil, gold, and natural gas, and also am long grains and natural gas. The reason I have off-setting direction in grains and gas is that I’m in it for the volatility - don’t really care about the direction all that much (because I’m not that highly leveraged). I was “wrong” on gold for months, but my short ETF paid off twice, helped me increase some stock positions a little, and basically was at break-even today on its cost-base.
I also did your trick and bought back a little insurance. I put back on two equity short ETFs, and all the moves together overall reduce my bias to 65% net long. What I’m counting on to grow the account now depends less on the market direction and more on the internal volatility of the ETFs and some of the stocks.
Thanks for the feedback on DS. I jump in once in a while for fun.
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — March 29, 2008 @ 6:13 am
Good to see you working again; limiting risk until you’re all into it mentally is probably a good thing.
Wish you the best!
Comment by nodoodahs — March 29, 2008 @ 8:38 am
Thinks Bill for the kind words.
George, I’ve been looking at some natural gas/oil spreads as of late. That spread has gotten pretty wide. Grains…I’m not even touching them until all of this carnage stops. I might look at sugar again, as I remain pretty bullish. However, I won’t have a total of 150 contracts like I blew out of the day before Denise died. I was pretty surprised that when I blew out of all my positions, in less than 5 minutes I might add, I ended up with a great profit. In hindsight, I got out at the right time.
Jeff
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 29, 2008 @ 12:59 pm
i am impressed that u actually picked urself up
i too had many uncountable setbacks in forex market
everytime i pick myself up, it pushed me down again
wonder if there is anything i could do.
Comment by ryan greezan — March 29, 2008 @ 1:47 pm
I may be completely wrong on the commodities (propensity to the short side at this time), but I look at the tech stock craze, the blew up. Then the real market went nuts. That blew up. The big thing going right now is commodities, and I’m thinking when is THAT going to blow (I think it started with the first big break recently). There may be some demand pressure from Asia, but that links right back to demand in North America and Europe. Man, when you’ve got a nail sticking up that high and edgy hammers all around …
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — March 29, 2008 @ 5:10 pm
Um…read “real market” as real estate market …
Comment by allocator — March 29, 2008 @ 5:11 pm
George,
Right now I wouldn’t be net long or short any of the grain markets. However, there are some intriguing spreads right now.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 29, 2008 @ 5:15 pm
I think you’re right about the grains. If you’re trading futures, you don’t want to bottom-fish the reaction right now, and you don’t want to get whip-sawed going short too early either. Again, it’s how you use the markets. I don’t care which way they go, I just want them to go. If they go up I acculate short ETF and sell off long ETF to fund other positions. Vice-versa if they go the other way. I’m trading the chop, not the pop, as it were - but reactively, not predictively.
By the way. If you just feel like doing something completely different, you’re welcome to come up here to Ottawa for a visit and stay with us. We live central to downtown in a nice neighbourhood with lots of parks and gardens (albeit covered with a crap-load of snow right now), and you could probably drop in on John either coming or going - or even bring him up. You have an open invitation.
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — March 29, 2008 @ 7:31 pm
George, I think Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City are in my travel plans for this summer. I’m going to take a long vacation this summer.
I’m also thinking of Hawaii, looking for a place to call home. So far, I’m thinking of a rural area on the north shore of Kauai, and buying a shack there. Kauai is the only place in Hawaii that I never visited with Denise, and I won’t have those demons chasing me. I was back there three years ago with John on a surfing expedition, and the place still looks like it did when I first was there in the 70’s. The only problem there is the locals….they hate haoles, which is understandable considering what we did to their society.
I will probably do this trip alone as John has informed me that he wants to go to Rome this summer to do some studying at the Vatican, looking at old manuscripts. I have no problem with that, but will miss him terrible. As long as he’s at a place with a broadband connection, I will have to be content with video chat.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 30, 2008 @ 11:21 pm
Great! Hopefully we’ll see you then. You have a place to crash in Ottawa if you want.
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — March 31, 2008 @ 1:33 am