I took my hit on my S&P long, and decided that equities still confuse me. My other positions faired much better, and today was a wash. Actually, I didn’t lose that much on the S&P, but if I’m in a trade for a couple of days and I’m not right, I get out. Sugar went down a couple hundreths of a cent, but corn and beans rallied very strongly. Gold acted very nice….too nice, and I’m waiting for the axe to fall. It looks like I was right about a large commercial letting the wheat market have some wheat, plus our own rogue trader. Today was the biggest one day declines I’ve seen in many years. In fact, I don’t think there’s been this type of action since Carter’s embargo of grain. Still, I remain bullish on wheat, and look forward to a good place to buy either wheat outright, or put on a spread.
We got our painting today, and are very pleased. My lovely wife actually cried at the sight of it…….her tears spread to me.
Jeff
Congratulations guys! Enjoy. Auguste would approve.
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — February 29, 2008 @ 3:21 am
Thanks George.
Hey George, Please go back to my Secondhanders piece that I did a few days ago and read a very interesting comment from our friend. Then go to DS and read the same guy discuss his medical condition in a comment. Look up that condition and tell me what you think
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — February 29, 2008 @ 3:24 am
Well Jeff, in my reckoning, it takes character to apologize. He apologized to me as well by email.
I have no reason to doubt that he has the condition he says he has. Others have been revealing personal stuff about themselves at DS. Having looked it up in Wikepedia it sounds like it carries with it some challenges.
Either way, it’s time to cut him some slack.
There’s always a danger in making assumptions about people you don’t know. One of my worst crow-eating experiences was a couple of years ago when my Dad picked us up at the airport returning from vacation. To say the least, he’s very slow about getting in the car, getting ready, and backing in or out when parking. Well he was slowly starting to back out of his parking spot, when this car honked at us. Didn’t pay much attention. My Dad had to re-adjust and then slowly continued backing out. The car honked at us again! Well I got pissed off at this impatient asshole, rolled down the window, and without looking aggressively flipped him the bird. When I did look back moments later, I was mortified to see this nice Indian gentlemen with his wife and kids, trying to point out to us that our trunk was open. If I could have crawled into the glove box I would have. Man, you’ve never seen anyone apologize so profusely. I NEVER do this sort of thing, and the one time …
To this day this episode is a running family joke (at my expense). And I’m sure the Indian family has a great ignorant Canadian story to tell as part of their family lore.
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — February 29, 2008 @ 4:35 am
“It looks like I was right about a large commercial letting the wheat market have some wheat, plus our own rogue trader.”
Who the heck was minding the store while the guy in Memphis was shorting 12K-15K wheat futures on the box Tuesday night? Was their risk control manager on vacation?
Why is it every time we hear about a “rogue trader” it’s a loser? Are “rogue traders” just unlucky or do firms just sweep it under the rug if they discover profitable unauthorized trading? Or do they turn a blind eye to large, unauthorized positions as long as someone is making money?
Trader Kevin
Comment by We Are...Penn State email list — February 29, 2008 @ 3:40 pm
Kevin
I mentioned the rogue trader to the group over at Daily Speculations. One very witty person said that a rogue trader that makes a ton of money becomes a manager or senior trader. You ought to click the link on my blogroll for Daily Speculations. DS is simply the best website for speculators around…..period. It’s a very philosophical place, and most of the authors (myself excluded) have first rate minds.
Cheers,
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 1, 2008 @ 12:58 am
Hi Jeff,
I tried to comment last night but it failed on the submit.
On your comment #2, hey, it takes character to apologize, so I’d say that counts for something.
On the condition - no reason not to believe him. It sounds like it carries some challenges. Either way, time to cut him some slack I think.
The one thing I’ve never been able to hold - apart from a financial career - is a grudge.
Cheers,
George
Comment by allocator — March 1, 2008 @ 3:02 am
I agree with you 100%. Something told me that the guy wasn’t all there, and when he divulged that info, I decided the best course of action is to basically ignore him. It is a waste of energy, both physical and mental, to spar with him. I looked up that condition on wiki, and found out it is related to autism, and it shows in his tirades. I don’t hold any grudges as anger is an emotion that I rarely dole out.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 1, 2008 @ 3:12 am
Yes, I’ve got Daily Speculations on my regular blog-reading rotation. Niederhoffer is a fascinating character, although his appetite for short volatility exceeds mine. Most of my short vol plays have been hedges for other positions.
That being said, when I was a broker on the New York Futures Exchange, we had a customer for whom we sold position limits (5,000 each) in out-of-the-money puts and calls on NYSE Index futures. The stock market drifted for the next month and they all expired worthless, to the tune of about ten million dollars. Cha-ching! The same customer was long big vol in metals when Volume Investors blew up. Cha-ching!
Comment by We Are...Penn State email list — March 1, 2008 @ 3:36 am
As I get older, my risk adversity increases. I’ll still put on short volatility plays, but won’t stick around long if I’m wrong. These days, I’m mainly a position trader, and stick with a position for months.
When you traded at the NYFE, were you able to trade your account, or were you allowed to only fill paper. At the MGEX, in the old days, guys could do both, and there was room for a bit of larceny.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — March 1, 2008 @ 1:06 pm