I spent most of the day at the hospital, and traded from there. I managed to catch a nice move on the S&P, buying the open, and selling it at the close. It was intended as one of those 10 contract scalps for a point, when the market started to firm up. I held it all day, pitching the position at the close. I don’t often have such a good trade, with virtually no pain. However, I should have sold half of my position on the close and held the rest overnight, but this was intended as a day trade. Sugar held up nice, and I ended up buying a few more contracts….I’m starting to build up a pretty big position in sugar. Grains all went up, but I made no money there. Gold was up again, and I thought about buying some more, but wasn’t able to pull the trigger. All in all, this market is easy to trade, but is really confusing when I try to predict what will happen next. Past performance tells me that I’ve never been good at predicting anyways. It was an odd day, as not one of my positions lost money.
The waves are about shoulder high, coming in nice sets. They’re breaking outside the sandbar, and the surface is glassy. Nobody is out surfing and I’m going to go out right now and surf till dark.
Jeff
Nice day, eh. I got in at about 11:30-ish. Hoping for a good employment number tomorrow to appease the herd. Let’s ride this wave awhile.
Comment by High Plains Trader — January 31, 2008 @ 10:56 pm
I never was good at predicting numbers and gave up the prediction business a long time ago. I do like to see how the market reacts to numbers when they come out, and base trades on the reaction. I remember back in the early 80’s when everyone would watch for the Fed numbers of M1 and M1B….the brokers would actually have betting pools on the numbers. I used to pass on those pools, as nobody really knows what the numbers are going to be….anyways, the numbers are usually revised at a later date.
Good luck on your ride….I’m out of the S&P and kind of wish I kept it overnight, but I was long 10 contracts and pulled a whole bunch of points out of it, so it was a good day.
Jeff
Comment by masteroftheuniverse — February 1, 2008 @ 12:35 am
You’re right. Those numbers are always revised. And I hate holding positions through the releases, especially if they might be market-moving numbers. For instance yesterday’s Fed release. I hate them.
I’m holding an options position tomorrow through the open, and it’s a current winner so I have my fingers crossed for a crowd-pleasing number. I don’t even care what it is, I just want the herd to like it. Then I can close may winner for a double or so. I closed out a near triple yesterday and would like to make it a solidly profitable week. We’ll see what tomorrow brings. I should be back from my morning walk just in time for the jobs report.
Comment by High Plains Trader — February 1, 2008 @ 2:11 am
on friday, gold broke down and the swissy rallied for over 150 pips from the 10750 low, but the yen didnt catched up…looks like somebody needs their usd back fast for next week…i started to buy usd against the swissy and shorted t-bonds again…
Comment by Peter — February 2, 2008 @ 12:30 pm
“looks like somebody needs their usd back fast for next week…”
that is a very interesting statement.
H
Comment by High Plains Trader — February 2, 2008 @ 11:20 pm
to use the words of jeff, you probably get no more then three chances in a lifetime to buy the swissy down at 10800… (-:
cheers
peter
Comment by Peter — February 3, 2008 @ 11:47 am
you mean sell? This is the highest it’s been since, well, I don’t know when. I only have charts that go back to 1985. It’s never been higher.
Comment by High Plains Trader — February 3, 2008 @ 1:22 pm
yes, right, buy USDCHF or sell the CHF against the USD…of course i dont know, maybe we wittnes historical proportions going over board here and now, but i take the bet for the USDCHF to stay in its big multiyear range (1.1xx to 1.8xx)…i believe in the its never different this time…the USD is dead, long live the $…we will see… (-:
Comment by Peter — February 3, 2008 @ 6:29 pm